BCREA Sees 10% Drop In Vancouver House Prices In 2009

The BC Real Estate Association has released its Fall 2008 forecast for the Greater Vancouver and British Columbia residential real estate market. BCREA is predicting Vancouver house prices will drop 10 per cent in 2009 and BC house prices will drop 9 per cent.

The BCREA is also predicting a 31 per cent fall in Vancouver sales from 38,978 in 2007 to 27,000 in 2008 and then 28,000 sales in 2009. BC real estate sales are forecast to decline 28 per cent from 102,805 units in 2007 to 73,700 units this year.

In a statement, Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist, said: "The erosion of consumer confidence that began with rising fuel prices earlier in the year is continuing, as the global financial crisis and volatile equity markets have BC households concerned about their own finances."

The BCRea is an industry body, with 12 member real estate boards and more than 18,000 realtors, so obviously its predictions come with that caveat.

In its Fall forecast last year, the BCREA predicted that Greater Vancouver house prices would increase by 8 per cent to $620,000 this year. That forecast has now been revised down to a 3 per cent increase to $585,000 for 2008.

The BCREA Fall 2008 report says: "the 3% increase is due to a cyclical price peak in the first quarter. Home prices have been edging lower since then and, while a 10 per cent decline in the average residential price is forecast in 2009, most of that decline will have already occurred by the end of 2008."

BCREA forecasts: past and future

BCREA has had to revise down last year's forecast for Greater Vancouver home prices from 8 per cent increase to a 2 per cent increase and BC as a whole from 8 per cent to 3 per cent.

BCREA 2008 Fall prediction (PDF)
BCREA 2007 Fall prediction (PDF)
BCREA current real estate predictions (PDF)