BCREA Now Sees 14% Drop in Vancouver House Prices in 2009

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) has, again, revised downwards its predictions for Vancouver House prices in 2009. BCREA now sees Greater Vancouver home prices falling 14% and BC house prices falling 13% in 2009.

In its revised forecast, released today, BCREA continues to suggest that a recovery in the Vancouver real estate market is imminent.

"The average MLS residential price is forecast to decline 13 per cent to $396,600 in 2009. However, the average annual residential price belies the fact that home prices declined steadily during the last nine months of 2008, and that most of the correction in BC home prices may occur by the summer of this year," says the BCREA release.

"Next year, the economy and the housing market are expected to stabilize. Real GDP growth in the province is forecast to rise a modest 1.5 per cent and job losses in 2009 are expected to give way to some employment gains."

The BCREA forecast has underestimated the ferocity of the credit crunch in the past - in its Fall 2008 forecast the realtor association predicted a softer drop of 10% in Greater Vancouver house prices and 9% in BC house prices in 2009.

Vancouver House Prices in 2010

Looking further ahead BCREA still sees further real estate losses in 2010. The year of the Winter Olympics, the BCREA says, will see a 3% decline in house prices in Greater Vancouver on the previous year and a 2% decline in BC.

This goes against the view held by some in the industry that Vancouver real estate will experience a greater downward momentum as a large overhang of properties, especially condos, hits the market.

Vancouver will also be experiencing the financial hangover of the Olympics.

BCREA Feb forecast (PDF)
BCREA current real estate predictions (PDF)